Who is going to be the big winner at the Oscars?

Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker vs. Inglourious Basterds

There are two ways that you can define "big winner." First, you can go by the raw number of Oscar wins, or second, you can go by who wins best picture.

The three favorites for both of these distinctions are Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. Avatar and The Hurt Locker are the obvious favorites, but Basterds has a chance to pull an upset based on the total number of nominations it received. Here is the breakdown:

"Avatar," (9 nominations)
(Art direction, Cinematography, Directing, Film editing, Original score, Best picture, Sound editing, Sound mixing, Visual effects)

The Hurt Locker (9 nominations)
(Jeremy Renner - Performance by an actor in a leading role, Cinematography, Directing, Film editing, Original score, Best picture, Sound editing, Sound mixing, Original screenplay)

Inglourious Basterds (8 nominations)
(Christoph Waltz - Performance by an actor in a supporting role, Cinematography, Directing, Film editing, Best picture, Sound editing, Sound mixing, Original screenplay)

Meanwhile, Up In the Air (6 nominations), Precious (6 nominations) and Up (5 nominations) are sleeper picks for the night's big winner. All are nominated for best picture.

Right now my money is on Avatar winning the most Oscars with The Hurt Locker winning best picture. In that case it is a split decision on who is the night's big winner. That is the way it should go anyway. I really hope Avatar doesn't win best picture and James Cameron better not win best director.